Recently, A paper entitled Distinguishing Hares and Tortoises in the Field: Applicants’ Prediction of Patent Value Flows has been published in Research Policy, a leading journal in innovation economics. The study was jointly completed by Associate Professor Cao Siwei from BNUBS, Professor Lei Zhen from The Pennsylvania State University, and Professor Brian Davern Wright from the University of California, Berkeley. It explores whether patent applicants can predict the evolutionary trend of invention value flows prior to filing. Based on Chinese and U.S. patent data, the research constructs a unique sample of USPTO‑CNIPA patent dyads. The core finding indicates that an applicant’s initial choice to file for a utility model patent (rather than an invention patent) at the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) serves as a highly predictive signal. Such a choice reveals that applicants anticipate concentrated value returns in the early stage of a patent’s lifespan, namely an early value flow. With faster examination procedures yet a shorter term of protection, utility model patents are better suited for innovations featuring a brief commercialization window and rapid emergence of competitive substitutes. Furthermore, the paper challenges a fundamental assumption in patent value research: high expected patent value does not necessarily equate to a more sustained value flow. This conclusion questions the mainstream method of estimating patent option value using renewal data and offers significant methodological implications.

Founded in 1972 (with its first volume released in 1971) and published by North‑Holland Publishing Co., Research Policy issues 10 monthly issues annually. Focusing on innovation economics, it publishes interdisciplinary studies on science and technology policy, technological innovation and environmental governance. The journal aims to analyze, understand and address economic, policy, managerial, organizational and environmental challenges brought by innovation, technology, R&D and scientific advancement.It is categorized as an SSCI Q1 journal, one of the FT50 academic journals, and rated ABS 4* in the 2024 Association of Business Schools journal ranking. Its 2025 Journal Impact Factor stands at 8.0, with a five‑year impact factor of 11.442.

Author Biography

Cao Siwei is an Associate Professor in BNUBS. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, and his doctorate from the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley. His research focuses on regional economics and innovation economics. He presides over a General Project funded by the National Social Science Fund of China and has published numerous articles in authoritative domestic and international journals, including Economic Research Journal, The Journal of World Economy, Nankai Economic Studies, Research Policy and Journal of Regional Science. He currently serves on the editorial board of Management and Organization Review (ABS 3‑star journal). He is a long‑term reviewer for journals such as Journal of Regional Science, Research Policy, Technovation, Journal of Technology Transfer, Management and Organization Review , China Economic Review, as well as  Economic Science, he was awarded the Best Reviewer of the Year by Management and Organization Review in July 2024.(DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2026.105481)

Contributed by Cao Siwei

Edited by Sun Yue

Reviewed by Hu Conghui